The Hemingway Report
Issue 22 Markets May 2026 £8 · $10
22Cover · Markets · THR Pro
Pro A Hemingway investigation

Kooth.

A public mental-health business with software margins? £93.7M, 41% gross, government-as-customer — and nobody is pricing it.

01 The thesis Per-population pricing, not per-seat. Clinical headcount sized to peak concurrency.
02 The math Gross margin walks up with contracted population. 2018 NHS contracts still beat 2024 US.
03 The trade A 35% premium clears the AIM register. We model three scenarios on US state penetration.

Kooth is the only publicly traded mental-health business I know of that prints software margins on a clinical product. The London market does not appear to have noticed. FY24 revenue: £93.7 million1. Gross margin: 41%2. The customer is, almost entirely, the state — the NHS in the United Kingdom, a growing list of state Medicaid plans in the United States — and the unit cost curve looks like a SaaS business, not a provider.

The interesting question isn't whether Kooth's revenue is good. (It is.) It's whether the model is durable, replicable, and rerateable. My read across the last four annual reports, two trading updates, and the Pennsylvania contract documents is that two of those three are true, and the third — the rerate — is the trade.

22.01 · OpeningWhat Kooth actually is

Kooth is a digital mental health platform sold to public-sector buyers — NHS commissioners and US state Medicaid plans — and made available, free at the point of use, to a defined population. In the UK, that's typically all 10-to-25-year-olds in a given Integrated Care Board catchment. In the US, it's all Medicaid-eligible 13-to-25-year-olds in the contracted state. The unit they sell isn't a seat. It is a population.

Definition · Read this before continuing

Per-population pricing vs. per-seat pricing

Per-seat economics — the BetterHelp / Cerebral / Talkspace D2C model — bill the customer for each registered user. COGS is linear in users. Per-population economics — Kooth's model — bill the customer once per contracted population (an ICB, a state). COGS is linear in peak concurrent users, which grows far slower than enrolled population. Gross margin compounds with density. This is the whole thesis in one sentence.

That distinction is the entire investment case. A per-seat business has linear cost of revenue; a per-population business has step-function cost of revenue. Kooth's clinical team is sized to peak concurrent users — not to enrolled population — and as the contracted population grows faster than peak concurrency, the gross margin walks up. This is, mechanically, why a 2018-vintage NHS contract still prints a higher margin than a 2024 US state contract: time and density3.

Kooth's Sheffield offices, looking south toward the city centre — golden hour, late summer. Photograph · Hemingway commission

This is not a model that BetterHelp, Talkspace or Cerebral can run on their existing balance sheet. Their unit economics are sized for D2C paid acquisition. Kooth's are sized for a procurement cycle. I wrote about that re-orientation at Talkspace four issues ago — the read across is that the consumer operators cannot get here from there4.

22.02 · Unit mathWhat the numbers actually do

Figure 1 · Revenue by geography

Annual recurring revenue, 2020 → 2024

UK · NHS US · state Medicaid
£0 £25M £50M £75M £100M 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 £58.6M · US +92% YoY in two states Pennsylvania goes live ↗
Source · Kooth Plc annual reports, FY20–FY24. UK revenue stated; US revenue derived from segment disclosure and state-by-state contract values5.

The mechanical reason this re-rate hasn't happened yet is that the UK side of the business obscures the US side in the consolidated P&L. Strip the UK out and what's left is a SaaS-shaped revenue ramp with a single signed multi-state contract and a credible pipeline of eight more. The market is reading the consolidated number and missing the second derivative.

22.03 · The moatThe procurement moat

State procurement is slow, sequential, and politically expensive. It is also — once won — one of the most durable customer relationships in the economy. The reason Kooth is interesting and not, say, the fifteen US start-ups currently pitching state Medicaid plans is that Kooth already has Pennsylvania. It already has California6. It already has a deployment playbook that has been signed off by the procurement legal teams of two of the largest state governments in the United States. The next twelve states will not require Kooth to invent a category. They will require Kooth to copy-paste an existing contract.

"

The unit they sell isn't a seat. It's a population.

Pro · The Therapy Layer · IV The Hemingway Report · Issue 22 · Markets · Steve Duke
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Including: a five-year DCF with three scenarios on US state penetration, the Pennsylvania contract structure broken down line-by-line, a comparator table against MAP Health and Brave Health, and an explicit answer to whether a private equity bid clears the AIM register at a 35% premium.

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Notes & sources

Where the numbers came from

We will share the cleaned source folder with every Pro subscriber on 19 May. Email steve@thehemingwayreport.com with corrections.