read.thehemingwayreport.com / issues / 18 โ€” the-talkspace-turnaround
Share ยท โ˜†
Reading this on the web. View the original email โ†’ Forward to an operator who would understand.
The Hemingway Report
Issue 18 ยท Markets ยท 29 August 2024
Founder's note

The Talkspace turnaround

Four earnings calls in a row. No pivot. No press release. A re-orientation of distribution that took the company from a $5M monthly burn to positive adjusted EBITDA in eighteen months โ€” and that BetterHelp, Cerebral and Brightside cannot copy on their existing balance sheet.

Hello operators,

This week I read the four most recent Talkspace earnings calls in a row. There is no pivot in them. There is, instead, a re-orientation of distribution โ€” the kind of operational move that doesn't make a press release and that the public market does not appear to be pricing correctly. Below: what they actually did, what the comparable category builders should have learned, and the unit economics of employer seats versus direct-to-consumer paid acquisition.

Q2 2022
โˆ’$5.1M / mo
Operating loss when the new CFO arrived. D2C-led distribution.
Q2 2024
+$3.4M EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA positive. Employer + payer share of revenue: 81%.

What the four calls actually said

Across Q3 2022, Q1 2023, Q3 2023 and Q1 2024, management used a version of the same sentence in answer to almost every analyst question: "we are migrating revenue mix toward employer-sponsored and payer-contracted seats." Analysts wrote it down as a marketing remark. It was a unit-economics remark.

Figure 1

Quarterly revenue by channel, 2021โ€“Q2 2024

Employer + payer   D2C
$0 $15M $30M $45M $60M Q1'21 Q4'21 Q3'22 Q2'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 81% mix ยท Q2 2024
Source ยท Talkspace 10-Q filings, Q1 2021 through Q2 2024. Segments derived from MD&A disclosure.

The mechanical reason the re-orientation produced earnings, and not just a different revenue mix, is straightforward: employer and payer seats carry near-zero customer acquisition cost, and they retain at the multi-year curve of a benefits product rather than the four-to-six-month curve of a D2C subscription. The contribution margin on a 24-month employer seat is roughly 3.4ร— a 4-month consumer seat at the same gross revenue.

The category's mistake was treating distribution as a marketing problem. It is a clinical problem.

The EBITDA inflection โ€” what actually moved

You can see the inflection in the GAAP filings. Operating loss compresses from โˆ’$15.3M in Q2 2022 to โˆ’$2.1M four quarters later, and crosses to positive in Q1 2024. The four-quarter slope is steeper than every direct comparable, and the line has not since flattened.

Figure 2

Adjusted EBITDA, Q1 2022 โ†’ Q2 2024

Talkspace ยท USD millions
+$8M +$4M $0 โˆ’$8M โˆ’$16M Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 EBITDA-positive ยท Q4 2023 โˆ’$15.3M trough
Source ยท Talkspace 10-Q filings. Adjusted EBITDA per company definition.

BetterHelp, Cerebral and Brightside โ€” each had a version of this choice in front of it between 2022 and 2024. None of them have made it, at least not at the volume and conviction Talkspace did. The reason is that the operational machinery for selling B2B is not the operational machinery for selling B2C, and you cannot grow one out of the other on the same balance sheet.

This is the right way to read the next two years of consolidation: not as a question of clinical quality, which is broadly comparable across the top names, but as a question of which distribution model the operator is actually built to run. If you are running a D2C-shaped P&L and you want to be Talkspace, you are not late โ€” you are simply at a different company.

โ€” Steve

The Hemingway Report
Published weekly from New York. For operators, founders and investors building the businesses that shape population mental health.
ยฉ 2024 The Hemingway Report. All rights reserved. 41 Bond Street, New York, NY 10012.